Case file
Renewal Strategy
A time-bound incentive to get residents deciding earlier, without giving away the budget.
The problem
A month's renewal rate had fallen into the low teens, and the next round of renewal invitations were about to go out close to the 60-day window for residents to give notice. Lease-ups offer months free, rent credits and cash concessions to get people through the door, but renewals rarely get the same attention.
I figured if we're willing to spend thousands acquiring new residents, the same analytical rigor and commercial discipline should go toward keeping them. So I proposed a solution.
My approach
Sizing the offer
For the next cohort of 21 leases, I proposed a concessions that felt substantial enough to answer resident concerns about not feeling valued. The management team settled on a concession of $200+ following a team discussion, but it held up against the math:
- Even if every resident accepted the offer, the payout would cost about a month and a half of rent on a single apartment: far less than one move-out once the vacant weeks, the unit turn, and re-leasing are added up.
Turning a deadline into an upside
Because the invitations were later than expectd, residents were already going to be operating close to their notice window. Instead of letting that feel like pressure, this incentive reframed it: rather than 60 days to give notice, it was 10 days to claim the offer.
Personal follow-ups
I sent every resident a personalized email, followed up by phone, and answered their questions, including requests for rent reductions or clarification on the promotions specifics and timeline. I managed each conversation through close.
The following month's invitations were going out about9889im the same time, so this was also a test: if it worked, it would tell us whether to roll the offer out again.
Outcomes
- 8 of 21 accepted by the deadline, and 5 more renewed the following week.
- 62% final renewal rate, up from the low teens the month before.
- Under $2,500 in direct incentive cost, about one month's rent on a single apartment.
IMAGE: https://hosannaunom.com/img/renewal/cohort.png
CAPTION: The 21-lease cohort, and the question the numbers can't answer on their own.
What I learned
On paper, that's compelling. But what exactly did the incentive accomplish?
Without measuring intent beforehand, I can't say for certain whether it changed 13 decisions, sped up five residents already leaning yes, or simply rewarded eight people who planned to stay anyway. That doesn't mean the campaign was ineffective, but it does mean the next one should be built to answer that question.
The offer wasn't repeated in later cycles, but by measuring carefully and using my menthods, you can adopt this strategy into a playbook any property team can run.
Replicate my results
Start early and with intent
Send renewal invitations well ahead of the notice window, so residents can decide with time to spare, not under a deadline they feel pressured to respond under.
A few weeks to months before that, use resident-experience reviews designed specifically to capture what's informing renewal intent: price, location, perceived value for money, service satisfaction, and the quality and speed of service recovery. An incentive likely won't make up for operational problems within your control, so close the gaps there's still time to fix first.
Put the price in context
Compare the proposed increase with in-place rents, asking rents, and market comps. It won't calculate demand elasticity, but it puts likely price sensitivity in context and shows how much (perceived) value an offer needs to create. A one-time concession also protects the rate: the renewal increase can stay at the proposed number while the offer does the persuading.
Size the offer against a move-out
Set your ceiling with simple math and work backward from there:
The most you can offer per lease = what one move-out costs ÷ leases in the cohort
One move-out costs the vacant weeks, the unit turn and re-leasing. If that adds up to about two months' rent, a 21-lease cohort can be offered up to roughly 9% of a month's rent each, and preventing a single move-out still covers the whole offer.
In our case, $200+ sat comfortably under that line. Fund it from the concessions budget already set aside for new residents or draw it from existing promotions to protect your bottom line.
Decide the behavior you're buying
- Speed: a deadline can move decisions forward without ballooning costs.
- Conversion: a guaranteed benefit may be more appropriate to ensure the ‘yes’ comes in, whenever it does.
- Affordability: rent credits can relieve some of the pressure from upcoming increases, so be flexible.
- Perceived value: modest gift cards or service coupons can add value without affecting the rate.
Deadlines quicken decision-making, and an earlier answer gives you more runway for remarketing and turnover planning, if that ends up being the case.
Measure whether it worked
Use post-renewal and post-notice surveys to learn whether the offer moved people, confirmed a decision they'd already made, or had no effect at all.
Then weigh the cost per incremental renewal against the vacancy and turnover loss it avoided, and compare results over time across cohorts with similar starting points.
Understanding what worked, and why, is what tells you whether an incentive is worth repeating season after season.